India Prisms thru Gujarat Elections 2017

INDIA PRISMS THRU GUJARAT 2017 ELECTIONS :Gujarat 2017 results gives a rainbow of perspectives. Everyone involved takes away with him or her the color that he/she likes most. While for the ruling BJP it is a win that beat 22 years of incumbency, for the congress it is a rise from the rags to the level of striking distance of wearing a political suit out of nothing and a habitat in the wilderness in the political desert of the county. For others, it is an expression of their own thoughts and wishful thinking.  

In 2014 the nation gave the BJP a decisive victory in the lok sabha elections and Gujarat was no exception which gave a positive mandate in 167 constituencies while it won 115 seats in the assemble elections in 2012. Riding on the 2014 wave, the party dreamed of 150 seats in 2017 but in reality it hovers around 100-105 seats. 

Three major issues that gripped the economy during these 3 years were demonatisation, GST and the declining agriculture. Other factors that stagnated the economy were a declining manufacturing sector, erratic movement of agriculture products and commodities that rode on volatile road of price uncertainty spiraling into unbridled Tsunami of price rice and inflation. Regular and consistent withdrawal of fuel subsidies and regular increase of petroleum prices ensured that the cost of living and price became part and parcel of day to day living and progress towards a better tomorrow became a mirage that became a reality as the country moved on. If the reality of the Gujarat elections were to be seen thru these prismatic realities of economy, a shift of 38 % assembly segments from the 2014 mandate is a natural corollary of grass-root realism. At the same time the resurgence of Congress need to be seen as a TINA factor in the political spectrum - that there is no other alternatives. Narratives of earlier elections in the country had shown that the voters in India gave its decisive mandate whenever an alternative  rose. For example, the Aam Admi Party in Delhi - not once but twice even thrice. The Indian voter never ceases to change its loyalties whenever the need arose- no matter the nature of the political parties are. Since no other alternatives emerged on the scene, the voter has reposed its faith in Congress as its alternative to the BJP while at the same time the voter has given the BJP another chance to mend its ways and drawbacks in economic decisions. 

The biggest lessons of Gujarat elections 2017 is that nothing is predictable in elections. The voters donot take arrogance of political parties lightly. The seats it gave to the Congress is a measure of its appreciation to the grand old party signalling out that political actions must benefit all sections of the society. If the Congress could do so well despite lack of local and national leadership of high calibre barring one or two, despite a mediocre organisational bandwagon and yet if the voter voted for it better than the previous elections, the Gujarat elections portends the trend of things to come in 2019 - that there is volatile and significant section around 38 % of voters who can take decisive decisions while voting within 3 years of governance. If the trend continues, this could go up beyond the 50 % of voters who voted in 2014. 2019 could well see a shift of preferernces of the voters of 2014 mainly from the BJP ruled states (it is 19 states with Gujarat and HP results) and this figure could easily outnumber the votes it could garner from the non BJP ruled states. Post 2014 events have shown that the growth of BJP have simultaneously saw the decline of the regional parties. This would send a signal of caution and shift of strategy and loyaly among the regional outfits. Regional parties in TN, AP and Orissa would take stock of the events that happened in UP and Bihar and Punjab and Maharashtra. A new order of political realignments are emerging in the country. Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. History has shown it. Events have proved it. India from time immemorial have experienced it. The Indian voter has time and again proved that he/she can strike when it is needed. The future of the country is safe in the hands of the Indian voter - no matter what all hurdles come in the way.